Sunday, 09 November 2014 22:25
Pressure on TL is Increasing
Though long time has passed since the start of the economic crisis which started in 2008 and left strong effects on the global level, a stable and sustainable recovery has not been achieved. The continuing moderate recovery in the global economy continues slowly and shows differences between the developed and emerging countries. During the last period, the emerging countries have created the fundamental moving force of the global growth. However, due to the declaration in the growth performances of these countries, the stimulating effect in the global activity is expected from the developed countries. In other words, the growth in the developed economies gains acceleration and the emerging ones show deceleration tendency. The fundamental dynamics underlying the slow progressing global growth are low investment ratios, high unemployment and stable progress of the global trade. The existence of the downside risks of the global economy still continues and new risks and uncertainties have started to arise.
It is envisaged that 2014 world product will increase 0.75 percent when compared to the previous year. It is expected that the growth of the Euro Region will progress slowly due to the low performance of the peripheral countries. The deceleration of the growth in China continues to affect negatively other economies – including Euro Region and Japan, especially commodity exporters in the emerging markets and developing countries.
Though the risks on the global level arising from the developed countries have decreased, they still maintain their importance. The global liquidity conditions, which will be shaped based on the exit strategy of the USA Central bank from the monetary expansion policy in short term and act of the USA Central Bank during the interest rate hike process in medium and long term, become prominent as the determinant factors on the global view.
The decrease of the global liquidity during the forthcoming term might cause volatility in our country that is facing structural problems and will cause pressure on Turkish Lira.
Those who prepare the budget for 2015 will be announced strongly ...
Regards
